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WASHINGTON (AP) President Barack Obama heads toward Election Day with an apparent lead over Republican Mitt Romney among early voters in key states that could decide the election.

 

Obama's advantage, however, isn't as big as the one he had over John McCain four years ago, giving Romney's campaign hope that the former Massachusetts governor can erase the gap when people vote on Tuesday.

 

More than 27 million people already have voted in 34 states and the District of Columbia. No votes will be counted until Election Day but several battleground states are releasing the party affiliation of people who have voted early.

 

So far, Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio five states that could decide the election, if they voted the same way. Republicans have the edge in Colorado, which Obama won in 2008.

 

Obama dominated early voting in 2008, building up such big leads in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina that he won each state despite losing the Election Day vote, according to voting data compiled by The Associated Press.

 

"In 2008, the McCain campaign didn't have any mobilization in place to really do early voting," said Michael McDonald, an early voting expert at George Mason University who tallies voting statistics for the United States Elections Project. "This time around the Romney campaign is not making the same mistake as the McCain campaign did."

 

McDonald said he sees a shift toward Republicans among early voters, which could make a difference in North Carolina, which Obama won by the slimmest of margins in 2008, only 14,000 votes. The Republican shift, however, might not be enough to wipe out Obama's advantage in Iowa and Nevada, which Obama won more comfortably in 2008.

 

In Colorado, Florida and Ohio, get ready for a long night of vote counting on Tuesday.

 

Romney's campaign aides say they are doing so much better than McCain did four years ago that Romney is in great shape to overtake Obama in many of the most competitive states.

 

"They are underperforming what their 2008 numbers were and karen millen coats outlet we are overperforming where we were in 2008," said Rich Beeson, Romney's political director. "We feel very good heading into the Tuesday election."

 

Obama's campaign counters that Romney can't win the presidency simply by doing better than McCain.

 

"It's not about whether or not they're doing better than John McCain did," said Jeremy Bird, Obama's national field director. "It's about whether or not they're doing better than us."

 

About 35 percent of voters are expected to cast ballots before Tuesday, either by mail or in person.

 

Voters always can cross party lines when they vote for any office, and there are enough independent voters in many states to swing the election, if enough of them vote the same way. Still, both campaigns are following the early voting numbers closely, using them to gauge their progress and plan their Election Day strategies.

 

A look at early voting in the tightest states:

 

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Colorado

 

About 1.6 million people have voted, and Republicans outnumber Democrats 37 percent to 35 percent. Those numbers are a reversal from four years ago at this time. Inevitably, Obama won the early vote by 9 cheap karen millen dress percentage points in 2008, giving him a big enough cushion to win the state, despite narrowly losing the Election Day vote.

 

Early voting in Colorado is expected to account for about 80 percent of all votes cast, giving it more weight than in other states.

 

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Florida

 

About 3.9 million people have voted, and 43 percent were Democrats and 40 percent were Republicans. For years ago at this time, Democratic early voters had a 9 percentage point lead over Republicans.

 

Obama won Florida's early vote by 10 percentage points in 2008, getting 400,000 more early votes than McCain, enough to offset McCain's advantage on Election Day.

 

In Florida, Republicans have historically done better among people who vote by mail, while Democrats have done better among people who vote early in person. For 2012, Florida's Republican-led Legislature reduced the number of in-person early voting days from cheap karen millen one shoulder 14 to eight.

 

The Obama campaign responded by encouraging more supporters to vote by mail, and Democrats were able to narrow the gap among mail ballots. Democrats quickly took the lead among all early voters, once in-person early voting started. But the margins are slim.

 

The Obama campaign acknowledges it must do better among Florida's Election Day voters than Obama did on 2008, when McCain won the Election Day vote by 5 percentage points.

 

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Iowa

 

About 614,000 people have voted, already exceeding Iowa's total number of early votes in 2008. So far this year, 43 percent of early voters were Democrats and 32 percent were Republicans.

 

Four years ago, Obama won the early vote in Iowa by a whopping 27 percentage points, 63 percent to 36 percent. McCain, meanwhile, won the Election Day vote by about 1,800 votes less than a percentage point. Together, they added up to a 10-point victory for Obama.

 

Romney's campaign argues that Democrats always do better buy karen millen one shoulder outlet among early voters in Iowa while Republicans do better among Election Day voters, even when President George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2004.

 

Obama's campaign counters that with early voting on the rise, Romney will be left with fewer Election Day voters to make up the difference.

 

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Nevada

 

About 628,000 people have voted, and 44 percent were Democrats and 37 percent were Republicans. Four years ago, Obama won Nevada's early vote big, 59 percent to 39 percent. Obama also won Nevada's Election Day vote on his way to a comfortable 13-point win over McCain.

 

The Romney campaign argues that Obama isn't doing nearly as well among early voters in Nevada as he did in 2008. The Obama campaign argues that it doesn't have to.

 

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North Carolina

 

About 2.5 million people have voted, and 48 percent of them were Democrats and 32 percent of them were Republicans. Four years ago at this time, Democrats had a slightly larger lead over Republicans, and Obama won the early vote by 11 percentage points.

 

Obama lost the Election Day Vote by 17 percentage points in 2008. But the early vote was much bigger than the Election Day vote, resulting in Obama's narrow win.

 

Obama's campaign cites the big lead for Democrats among early voters, while Romney's campaign argues that even a small shift toward the Republicans could flip the state to Romney.

 

___

 

Ohio

 

More than 1.6 million people have voted, and 29 percent were Democrats and 23 percent were Republicans. Forty-seven percent were unaffiliated, more than enough voters to swing the state to either candidate.

 

Ohio may once again be pivotal in the race for the presidency. Unfortunately, Ohio's early voting data is limited. Party affiliation in Ohio is based on the last primary in which a voter participated, so new voters and those who don't vote in primaries are listed as unaffiliated.

 

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 5 percentage points.

BOULDER, ColoradoDressed in a sports jacket, a faded peace-symbol T-shirt and blue jeans, the Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson was playing to a rapturous overflow crowd at the University of Colorado. The man who could be the Ralph Nader of 2012 beguiled his largely male, mostly student audience with his views on the second-biggest issue on the Colorado ballot this year: Amendment 64, which would legalize marijuana.

 

Im the only candidate running for president of the United States who wants to end the drug war now, Johnson, a former Republican governor of New Mexico, said Monday night to cheers. Colorado has the opportunity to change worldwide drug policy by voting for Issue 64.

 

Johnson, who first endorsed marijuana legalization in 1999, is a Ron Paul libertarian with a deep toke of social permissiveness. Even though he was an asterisk in the 2012 Republican presidential primaries, Johnson and his pro-pot stance could be a surprise factor in a swing state where all the polls point to a tie. As Jeff Orrok, the Colorado chairman of the Libertarian Party, puts it, Were getting a fair amount of synergy around Amendment 64.

 

Like Nader in Floridas hanging-chad 2000 election, Johnson will draw only a small percentage of the presidential vote in Colorado. A new CNN/ORC poll gives Johnson 4 percent of the vote in Colorado. But many other Obama-vs-Romney poll questionnaires in Colorado do not mention Johnson by name, instead lumping him with other minor-party candidates (including comedian Roseanne Barr) under a vague designation called karen millen coats online Other.

 

But its not blowing smoke to believe that Johnson could corral enough support from tepidly pro-Obama younger voters to make an electoral difference in a state as evenly divided as Colorado.

 

Confronting the curse that haunts all third-party candidates, Johnson stressed to his supporters that theyre not disenfranchising themselves by voting for him. Wasting your vote is voting for someone you dont believe in, Johnson said Monday night as his acolytes demonstrated a libertarian disdain for fire-marshal rules about blocking the aisles in the college auditorium where he spoke.

 

In an interview backstage after the speech, as fans clamored for autographs, Johnson impatiently waved off any comparisons to the third-party candidacy of Nader, who Democrats blame for costing Al Gore the 2000 election in Florida.I think that voting ones cheap karen millen dress conscience is how you change the system, he said. If I get a certain number of votes it affects Romney in ways that he

 

Here, Johnson broke off the thought to mention the pressure that his hero Ron Paul is already putting on the Republican nominee. Romney pays a bit of lip service [to libertarian principles], Johnson said, but maybe he goes beyond paying lip service.

 

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At moments like this, Johnsons Republican roots are showing. But in both his speech and the interview, Johnson claimed to have been beguiled cheap karen millen one shoulder by Obamas rhetoric, even though he voted for the Constitution Party presidential candidate in 2008. I was very optimistic on gay rights, very optimistic on the war and I was very optimistic on the drug war, Johnson told me. Those were three categories that definitely were going to improve under Obama. And they havent.

 

Johnson is, by no means, a one-issue candidate, and his supporters in Boulder roared when he proclaimed, I would have vetoed the Patriot Act. But even if Johnson waffled a little on the immediate legalization of cocaine (We will not go from A-to-Z overnight), this is a candidate firmly on the side of the stoners. If Colorado passes Amendment 64, Johnson said in his buy karen millen one shoulder outlet stump speech, pumping for the allure of reefer-madness Colorado vacations, it will send a message when everyone in the country wants to go Denver for the weekend to chill out.

 

Polls suggest that Amendment 64 is likely to pass. Introducing Johnson in Boulder on Monday night, Denver shock jock Uncle Nasty (a.k.a. Gregg Stone) said, I truly believe 64 will pass and well go to war with the feds.

 

While war is undoubtedly an exaggeration, the Obama administration (and, needless to say, a potential Romney presidency) has shown scant sympathy for the medical marijuana programs that are legal in some form in Colorado and 16 other states.

 

Coupled with a deadlocked presidential race in Colorado, Amendment 64 adds a dazed and confused element to Campaign 2012. What Gary Johnson does is make the winning margin for president in Colorado 48.5 percent, said Democratic political consultant Rick Ridder, who has advised the Amendment 64 campaign. Its unclear at this point who Johnson takes votes from. Traditionally, the Libertarian candidate draws from Republicans. But this year, its uncertain because of 64.

 

It seems ludicrous that a state referendum on marijuana could influence who gets the codes to Americas nuclear weapons next Jan. 20. But it once seemed unfathomable that Jewish voters in Floridas Palm Beach County mistakenly punching Pat Buchanans name could, in effect, elect George W. Bush president in 2000. Thats the hallucinogenic wonder of American politicsanything can happen, and all too frequently does.